Table 6 Central populations’ demographic history estimation statistics (mean, median, mode) of the posterior distribution for the parameters ancestral effective population size (Nanc), effective population size after expansion (Nexp) at time 2 (t2), and the effective population size (Ne) after a bottleneck event at time 1 (t1), including their 95% CI under the best model (Scenario 3). Values reported and discussed in the paper are those of the mode (bold)
Lineage | Nanc | t2 (expansion) | Nexp | Years bp (t2)a | t1 (bottleneck) | Ne | Years bp (t1)a | Calendar years (t1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Upper–Central | ||||||||
 mean | 815 | 13,100 | 52,900 | 104,800 (78,600–131,000) | 29.8 | 89.1 | 238 (178–289) | 1782 (1731–1842) |
 median | 587 | 13,700 | 54,700 | 109,600 (82,200–137,000) | 30.6 | 85.4 | 244 (184–306) | 1776 (1714–1836) |
 mode | 225 | 18,400 | 73,500 | 147,200 (110,400–184,000) | 38.2 | 51.8 | 306 (229–382) | 1714 (1638–1721) |
 95% CI | 37.7–2,890 | 3,540–19,700 | 21,100–74,100 | 28,320–157,600 | 7.18–48.8 | 20.8–182 | 57–390 | 1630–1963 |
Lower–Central | ||||||||
 mean | 619 | 13,800 | 71,000 | 110,400 (82,800–138,000) | 13.7 | 27.9 | 110 (82–137) | 1910 (1883–1938) |
 median | 432 | 14,800 | 76,100 | 118,400 (88,800–148,000) | 11.9 | 20.1 | 95 (71–119) | 1925 (1901–1949) |
 mode | 287 | 19,200 | 94,800 | 153,600 (115,200–192,000) | 8.67 | 11.9 | 69 (52–87) | 1951 (1933–1968) |
 95% CI | 111–2,350 | 3,730–19,700 | 25,700–98,800 | 29,840–157,600 | 5.15–31.7 | 10.8–81.5 | 41–254 | 1766–1979 |