Fig. 4

Clockwise from top left: a Historical modeled and future projected abundance for the Myotis septentrionalis regional population. The vertical line at 2021 separates abundance predictions with uncertainty from the Bayesian hierarchical model (pre-2021) and the three scenario projections from the demographic matrix model (2021-2041). The solid lines show the median and the dashed lines encompass 90% confidence intervals of simulations. b Simulation differences between the baseline scenario and mortality scenarios for Myotis septentrionalis. Solid line shows the median of simulation differences, and the dashed lines encompass 90% confidence intervals of simulation differences (y-axes in units of bats). c Inset enlarging the future projected abundance under three scenarios